Below is a listing of select Hilltop publications and presentations. You can search by type, topic, date, and/or title. The search function searches for key words in both the title and the publication summary. Click on the publication’s title below to go to its summary.
Accessibility Notice: Publications released before April 24, 2026 have not been remediated for Section 508 compliance.
This document, written by Hilltop Director of Analytics & Research Morgan Henderson, Senior Data Scientist Leigh Goetschius, and Interim Executive Director Alice Middleton, quantifies the impact of removing the 6% provider tax safe harbor threshold on state-level federal Medicaid funding. Using data on hospital and nursing facility tax rates and net patient revenue, this analysis finds that eliminating the 6% provider tax threshold for hospitals and nursing facilities would put $83.7 billion of federal Medicaid funding at risk.
This one-pager, written by Hilltop Director of Analytics & Research Morgan Henderson, Senior Data Scientist Leigh Goetschius, Director of Aging & Disability Studies Christin Diehl, and Interim Executive Director Alice Middleton, quantifies the impact of removing the 50% Medicaid Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) floor on federal spending on Medicaid-funded home and community-based intellectual and developmental disabilities (ID/DD) services in states. The one-pager estimates the federal funding decreases overall and for each of the ten states that would be the most impacted.
This one-pager, written by Hilltop Director of Analytics & Research Morgan Henderson, Senior Data Scientist Leigh Goetschius, and Interim Executive Director Alice Middleton, quantifies the impact of removing the 50% Medicaid Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) floor on the federal Medicaid funding to states. The one-pager estimates the federal funding decreases overall and for each of the ten states that would be the most impacted.
This report describes the services The Hilltop Institute provided to the Maryland Department of Health under their Master Agreement. The report covers fiscal year (FY) 2024 (July 1, 2023, through June 30, 2024). Hilltop’s interdisciplinary staff provided a wide range of services, including Medicaid program development and policy analysis; HealthChoice program support, evaluation, and financial analysis; long-term services and supports program development, policy analysis, and financial analytics; and data management and web-accessible database development.
The Hilltop Pre- Models are risk prediction models developed by The Hilltop Institute at UMBC that use a variety of risk factors derived from Medicare claims data to estimate the event risk that a given patient incurs a given outcome in the near future. As of November 2022, there are three such prediction models in production for the Maryland Primary Care Program (MDPCP) population: the Hilltop Pre-AH Model™, which generates the “Avoidable Hospitalizations (PreAH)” scores; the Hilltop Pre-DC Model™, which generates the “Severe Diabetes Complications (Pre-DC)” scores; and the Hilltop Pre-HE Model™, which generates the “Hospice Eligibility and Advanced Care Planning (Pre-HE)” scores. These risk scores are displayed in the MDPCP Prediction Tools area on Chesapeake Regional Information System for our Patients (CRISP).
This annual report, written for the UMBC community, provides an overview of key projects and staff accomplishments for FY 2024.
The Maryland Primary Care Program (MDPCP) began in January 2019 as a key element of the state’s Total Cost of Care (TCOC) Model, an agreement between CMS and the state of Maryland. MDPCP is a voluntary program that provides funding and support for the delivery of advanced primary care throughout the state. It allows primary care providers to play an increased role in the prevention and management of chronic disease, as well as in the prevention of unnecessary hospital utilization, with the ultimate goal of improving quality of care while reducing Medicare TCOC growth.
This report documents the causal impact of the introduction of MDPCP on utilization and expenditure and is the state’s commissioned evaluation of the program to fulfill the 2024 Joint Chairmen’s Report (JCR) requirement of an independent evaluation of MDPCP.
In 1997, Maryland implemented HealthChoice—a statewide mandatory Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) managed care program—under authority of a waiver through §1115 of the Social Security Act. The provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that went into effect in 2014 marked another milestone by extending quality coverage to many more Marylanders with low income. Over 25 years after its launch, HealthChoice covers close to 90% of the state’s Medicaid and Maryland Children’s Health Program (MCHP) populations. Since the inception of HealthChoice, the Maryland Department of Health (the Department) has requested and received seven §1115 waiver renewals.
The Hilltop Institute, on behalf of the Department, evaluates the program annually; this evaluation covers the period of calendar year (CY) 2018 through CY 2022.
Policy Analyst Advanced Morgane Mouslim, ScM, DVM, presented this poster at the 2024 AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting (ARM) held June 29 – July 2 in Baltimore.
On April 10, 2024, Hilltop Deputy Director Alice Middleton was one of three speakers at a session of the University of Baltimore-sponsored Rosenberg Dialogue Series, titled Fixing Unintended Pandemic Medicaid Policy Consequences: Lessons Learned and Insurance Coverage Implications for Recipients. In the session, speakers discussed the national context and state variations in qualifying disenrolled persons for coverage, Maryland Medicaid experiences with this policy complication for continuous enrollment, and generating data and information for evidence-based decisions.