Publications

A Tale of Two States: Reconciling Medicaid Work Requirement Enrollment Impacts in Georgia and Arkansas

Hilltop Senior Director of Analytics & Research Morgan Henderson, Senior Director of Health Reform Studies Laura Spicer, and Executive Director Alice Middleton discuss the only two states that implemented Medicaid work requirements: Arkansas (which reported high compliance) and Georgia (where enrollment has remained extremely low) in this article published in AEA Papers and Proceedings.

Read the article online.

Predicting Severe Diabetes Complications Using Administrative Claims Data in Maryland

Leigh Goetschius, PhD, Danielle Barefoot, MEd, Fei Han, PhD, Ruichen Sun, MS, and Morgan Henderson, PhD, co-authored this article published in The American Journal of Managed Care.

The authors discuss the results of Hilltop’s large-scale risk predictive model based on administrative claims and conclude that the model can predict severe type 2 diabetes events for the Medicare FFS population in Maryland.

Read the article online.

Risk Score Specifications and Codebook for The Hilltop Institute's Pre- Models, Version 4

In 2014, the state of Maryland partnered with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to modernize its unique all-payer rate-setting system for hospital services to improve the overall health of Maryland residents by increasing health care quality and reducing the cost of care. In service of providing better care at lower costs, The Hilltop Institute at UMBC, in partnership with the Maryland Department of Health, has developed predictive risk stratification models to identify patients at high risk for potentially preventable health care utilization that can be used to help target care resources to the patients who need them most.

This document strives to explain the intended use, technical implementation, and model performance of the Hilltop Pre- Models as of January 2026. The Pre- Models are a suite of prediction tools spanning the Pre-AH Model, Pre-DC Model, and Pre-HE Model. This document will be updated as the models are updated or when new models become operational, and significant changes will be noted in the documentation edit history table and in the text when necessary.

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