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The Hilltop Institute

Bulletin

February 7, 2025


Hilltop Predictive Risk Scores Support Advanced
Primary Care for Over 2 Million Marylanders


As of February 7, 2025, The Hilltop Institute at UMBC has expanded its predictive modeling portfolio to facilitate the delivery of advanced primary care for more than 2 million Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries in Maryland via the Multi-Payer Reporting (MPR) Suite on Chesapeake Regional Information System for our Patients (CRISP).

The Hilltop Pre-AH Model, which predicts risk of avoidable hospitalizations, and the Hilltop Pre-DC Model, which predicts risk of severe diabetes complications, were originally designed to help providers participating in the Maryland Primary Care Program (MDPCP) direct their limited care management resources to the Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients who need them most. Following the successful implementation of the Pre-AH risk scores in 350,000 MDPCP-attributed beneficiaries, Hilltop created a version of these risk scores for the approximately 1.4 million Medicaid beneficiaries enrolled in the HealthChoice program.

Working closely with the Office of Advanced Primary Care within the Maryland Department of Health, Hilltop will now generate monthly Pre-AH and Pre-DC risk scores for 2.1 million Medicaid beneficiaries and Medicare FFS beneficiaries in Maryland. These risk scores will be available for providers through the Prediction Tools report in the CRISP MPR Suite. This expansion marks a significant advance in the use of innovative data analytics to optimize primary care in Maryland and represents the state’s commitment to ensuring quality, high-value care for all.

Read more about Hilltop’s work in predictive modeling.

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