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Health Reform Resources

photo of Hamid FakhraeiSimulation and Forecasting

Hilltop staff have extensive experience in forecasting enrollment and costs in Medicaid and other health programs using econometric and other statistical methods.

The Hilltop Health Care Reform Simulation Model is a dynamic simulation model that can be updated. Its projections are revised as new data become available, conditions and factors change over time, and decisions are made by policymakers, employers, and consumers. It projects population insurance coverage through Medicare, Medicaid, commercial insurance, the insurance exchange, and the remaining number of uninsured individuals following implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in a state. The model also projects the impact on a state's budget, the increases in health care expenditures, and the economic impact of implementing the ACA through 2020.   ... read more >

Hilltop developed this simulation model in 2010 for Maryland and has been revising and using it to project coverage, caseloads, and expenditures since that time. The model was also used to simulate employers' offers and employees' take-up of insurance coverage for New Mexico.

Medicaid Expansion

As states go forward with Medicaid expansion, they need to determine how it will affect the state economy. Hilltop's simulation model was also used to conduct economic analysis for the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DHMH). Hilltop partnered with DHMH to analyze the basic health plan option presented by the Affordable Care Act so that DHMH could make a recommendation to the legislature as to whether Maryland should implement the program.

For more information, contact S. Hamid Fakhraei, PhD, Director of Research and Financial Studies. Hamid led the team that developed the Hilltop Health Care Reform Simulation Model and is the principal researcher for simulations and forecasting.